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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

However the current race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers improving in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still